Nifty McNiftington (boffo) wrote,
Nifty McNiftington

Political Prediction of the Day

I'm going to offer an official prediction, so that in four years when it happens I can say "I told you so." Or if it doesn't happen, you can mock me.

I believe the following chain of events will occur:

1. Republicans will have huge electoral victories this year, taking control of Congress.

2. The bulk of Republican Congressmen and Senators will continue to be as terrible as they've been in the past.

3. This will piss off tea partiers to the point that they form a real viable third party.

4. The Tea Party (or whatever the official party will end up being called) will win a significant amount of Congress and Senate seats in 2014. Probably less than the Democrats or Republicans, but enough to be a real voting bloc and establish itself as a legitimate political party that's here to stay.

I think numbers one and two are fairly common and not very bold as far as predictions go, but very few people seem to be thinking about where this obvious chain of events will lead.

The Tea Party is significantly more popular than either political party. They're pissed off at how terribly the government is being run. Right now that anger is primarily directed at Democrats, because the Democrats are running the government. But once the Republicans are running the government and show themselves to be almost as terrible, the Tea Partiers aren't going to go away. They'll be even more angry at the Republicans for the betrayal. But they aren't going to forget how awful the Democrats were, so their only choice will be to run candidates themselves.

I think the only thing that would stop this is if the Tea Party succeeds in its current attempt to take over the Republican Party from the inside. They've had some success in this venture, defeating corrupt plutocrat big-government insiders in primaries in Florida, Alaska, and Delaware. But I think the corrupt plutocrats are too entrenched in the party, and efforts to turn the GOP into the party of small government and fiscal responsibility are doomed to fail.
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